Enrollment Data Analysis

District 65 Enrollment Decline in Context

Evanston CCSD 65 has experienced significant enrollment decline over recent years. Understanding this trend in comparison to peer districts is crucial for attributing the cause of enrollment decline.

Total Enrollment Over Time

This chart shows the absolute enrollment numbers for District 65 and comparable districts from 2018 to present.

Percent Change in Enrollment

This visualization compares the percentage change in enrollment across peer districts. While many districts have experienced some enrollment decline, District 65’s 18.75% decline stands out as particularly severe among its peers.

Statistical Significance: Z-Score Analysis

Understanding Z-Scores

A z-score measures how many standard deviations a data point is from the mean (average) of a dataset. In this context:

• A z-score of 0 means a district’s enrollment change is exactly average
• A z-score of -1 means the change is one standard deviation below average
• A z-score of -2 or lower indicates an unusually extreme decline (occurring in only ~2.5% of cases in a normal distribution)

District 65’s Position

District 65’s enrollment decline has a z-score of -2.23, meaning its 18.75% enrollment loss is more than two standard deviations below the average change among peer districts. This statistical measure confirms that District 65’s enrollment challenges are not typical of the region. The district is experiencing significantly worse enrollment trends than comparable communities.

Implications

The severity of this decline, as indicated by the z-score, suggests that District 65 faces unique challenges that extend beyond general demographic trends affecting all districts. This data should inform discussions about why District 65 is underperforming with the understanding that the district’s enrollment crisis is statistically exceptional rather than part of a universal pattern.

Calculations for these figures can be viewed in the interactive Jupyter notebook.